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Research Call

DAFM Reference

Lead(Collaborating)Institution

DAFM Award

DAFM National Call 2010 10 S 715 Teagasc (CIT, UCC) € 199,386

Project Title:

Volatility and Risk in Irish Agriculture

Project Coordinator:

Dr. Trevor Donnellan

Project Abstract

A corollary of increased international economic integration is the increased exposure of the Irish economy and Irish agriculture to global agricultural and non-agricultural market price volatility. CAP reform and ongoing multilateral and bilateral international trade negotiations will likely increase the exposure of Irish and EU agriculture markets to world market price volatility. Increased agricultural input and output price volatility leads to increasingly volatile and risky agricultural incomes, agricultural production and trade and possibly volatile levels of government expenditure. In this project research will be conducted that analyses the impact of volatility in Irish agricultural input and output prices on agricultural production and incomes at the farm and aggregate sector levels through the development of stochastic FAPRI-Ireland aggregate sector and farm level models. Time series analysis using higher frequency data will examine the statistical nature of the volatility inherent in Irish agricultural output and input prices and will inform the development of the stochastic aggregate sector and farm level model. The recent European Communication on CAP reform post 2013 suggests that a “risk management toolkit” be developed under Pillar II of the reformed CAP. Analyses of possible market based and public policy mechanisms for dealing with volatility and risk in Irish agriculture will also be examined.

Final Report:

10 S 715 Final Report (pdf 347Kb)